BEST DIRECTOR

5. Lee Daniels, Precious. And the incessant crushing of Precious continues! He’s the guy who happened to be behind the camera. Writing and casting are what made this movie. Unbelievably hard to screw this one up, and you know that because Mariah Carey was involved in an acting capacity. So kudos to him for keeping Nick Cannon from butchering improv on set. Same Chances As: Robert Rossen for The Hustler, 1961. Odds: 30/1.

4. Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds. I’ve gone on record saying this is not my favorite QT movie, but I think the faults were with the writing and, frankly, cutting a huge chunk of the movie out when he could have Kill Double-Billed it. But the direction was great. Maybe QT needs a couple guys from the old neighborhood to keep him from cutting an hour out of his movies. Same Chances As: Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, 2000. Odds: 6/1.

3. Jason Reitman, Up In The Air. I like Jason Reitman. He’s like one of those kids who could have gotten into Yale as a legacy but refused to make that call. He’s going to win one of these eventually. The problem here is that he’s in the middle of a massive reality show at the top. Pure, old school direction with nothing attached, he’s got a good shot to take it. Same Chances As: The Cohen Brothers for Fargo, 1996. Odds: 4/1. Read More

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

5. Matt Damon, Invictus – This guy’s career has made an interesting arc, starting with writer/heavy actor in Good Will Hunting, and sort of evolving into the new thinking-man’s Van Damme. That’s still less than an actual thinking man. An Afrikaans accent is hard, but let’s not give an award to someone for frosting his tips. Same Chances As: Eric Roberts in Runaway Train, 1985. Odds: 50/1

4. Woody Harrelson, The Messenger. The former barback at Cheers is actually one of the better actors that no one realizes is a good actor. The problem here is twofold: people think of Joan of Arc when they hear ‘The Messenger’ and no one saw that movie either. Same Chances As: Richard Farnsworth in Comes a Horseman, 1978. Odds: 45/1 Read More

So people apparently love gambling. Let’s fill in some blanks.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

5. Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air. As stacked as the leading lady category is, the supporting section is like the premade sandwich section at Ralph’s around 1am. This chick had the worst fake cry in movies since Mike Meyer’s splashed water in his face in Waynes World 2. Same Chances As: Rosie Perez in Fearless, 1993. Odds: 40/1

4. Penelope Cruz, Nine. Penelope, who is a pretty good actress in spanish and the female Keanu Reeves in English, has the tough spot of being nominated for a movie everyone agreed kinda stunk. To give her the award is to excise everything from consideration save the performance. Since when do the Oscars do that? Same Chances As: Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal, 2006. Odds: 21/1.

3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart. The victim of savage blowback. No matter how good she is, doubters will say that they could have put a table next to Jeff Bridges and it would have gotten nominated. Kinda like when evaluating Bird and Magic without thinking about their supporting casts. Or Manning vs Brady. Sports sports sports. Sports. Same Chances As: Lorraine Bracco in Goodfellas, 1990. Odds: 9/1. Read More

The guys running the Oscars must be beside themselves. They get to plug ten movies as best picture worthy and have maybe the most soap-opery story in the history of the event: the battle of the exes, James Cameron vs Kathryn Bigelow. This makes Dynasty look plausible.

So who’s going to win it in the ridiculously crowded field? Let’s break it down, along with historical odds for context.

10. The Blind Side. It’s a great story and features a player for the greatest team in American sports. But this was the tenth one they picked, right? Same Chances As: Anything in 1993 Not Called Schindler’s List. Odds: 250/1

9. An Education. No one has seen this movie. Alfred Molina hasn’t even seen the whole thing. That often bodes poorly for their Oscar chances. Same Chances As: Secrets and Lies in 1996. Odds: 150/1

8. A Serious Man. Another movie that didn’t exactly blow up the box office. But it’s the Coen Brothers. I think that’s the only reason they’re on the list. Same Chances As: Prizzi’s Honor in 1985. Odds: 135/1

7. District 9. Probably the surprisingly best movie on the list. Covered the sci-fi side, great acting, and interesting cultural parables. The problem is it gets out effected by Avatar, a brighter movie with about an eighth of the story. Same Chances As: E.T. in 1982. Odds: 120/1

6. Up. One of these days an animated movie is going to win it (it might be this year with James Cameron’s 400 million dollar cartoon). Maybe only one other movie on this list was more of a tear-jerker than Up. They’ve come a long way since Mulan. Same Chances As: Babe in 1995. Odds: 100/1

5. Precious. Now onto the contenders. Precious is one of those movies that is going to win at least one, maybe two acting awards, and the academy will feel totally fine about that. Monique is a mortal lock, teeing up the wonderful potential of Soul Plane 2 being announces as, “With Oscar Winner Monique.” Acting can’t be the only thing anymore. Same Chances As: Shine in 1996. Odds: 60/1

4. Up In The Air. The true dark horse. Jason Reitman is becoming a big ticket item. Plus, you’ve got Clooney, who the academy tries desperately to give something every year. And the most deceptive trailer of the year as well. If this was the 2009 NFL playoffs, it would be the New York Jets. Same Chances As: Chinatown in 1974. Odds: 25/1

3. Inglourious Basterds. Here come the top seeds. Quentin Tarantino’s killin’ Nazi movie should have been in two Kill Bill parts and would have walked away with it. But the Weinsteins condensed it down like bouillion and gave us something just on the outside of greatness instead. It’s also not going to win many other awards, really. Director, screenplay, and picture really are its own shots. Any other year, this would be the hands down first runner up. Same Odds As: Gladiator in 2000*. Odds: 10/1

2. Avatar. Perhaps this is wishful thinking and the odds of the highest grossing movie ever are actually better than this. Avatar is the most visually impressive movie ever made, arguably on the same plane as The Matrix, Star Wars, and The Wizard of Odds. But it’s the weakest writing and worst acting out of any of the movies on the list. The academy may throw Cameron a bone for getting so much revenue for them (like they did in 1997 for a similar piece of melodramatic crap), but here’s hoping the best movie is actually named that way. Same Chances As: Titanic in 1997. Odds: 3/1.

1. The Hurt Locker. The former Mrs. Cameron has a war movie that should really be in its own category. On one side, you have Saving Private Ryan, Platoon, and The Thin Red Line. On the other, you have Apocalypse Now, Full Metal Jacket, and Bridge on the River Kwai, movies that take place in wars but aren’t really about the wars themselves. This flick has excellent acting, an interesting new message, and cultural relevance considering its setting in war torn Iraq. But is it too controversial? Since when is that a bad thing? Same Odds As: Goodfellas in 1990. Odds: 2/1.

You may notice that in 1990, Goodfellas, the indisputable best movie of the year, lost out to a fifth-grade story about a guy who goes outside his evil, racist cultural group to find solace in an oppressed minority, and then fight back against his original group. Just sayin…

“This is like Lindsay Lohan dying,” a studio executive told me. “It really doesn’t come, unfortunately, as a shock.”
Virtually everyone I spoke with who knew her suggested that it was a given that she had a drug problem, involving both heroin and cocaine, though none admitted to directly seeing her use or abuse narcotics. “She had too many drugs and too little food,” said a makeup artist who had worked with her, adding that she sometimes “nodded off” in front of her.
“She was a space cadet most of the time when I saw her,” added the studio executive. Others echoed that privately. - Gerald Posner, Daily Beast

You’ll be hard pressed to find a better reality “show” than Jersey Shore. And while MTV is taking a fantastically hypocritical stance about not showing Snooki (aka Snickers, Schnookums, and Ahhhh!!) getting punched in the face, we here have no such false dignity.